The reasoning behind the climate clock
written by Laurie Jin, edited by Ada Praun-Petrovic
On September 19th 3:20 pm, a message that read “The Earth has a deadline” appeared on Manhattan, New York’s digital clock. Then, the numbers 7:103:15:40:07 showed up, displaying the years, days, hours, minutes, and seconds that we have left until climate change becomes irreversible. While the physical Climate Clock, made by artist Gan Golan and activist Andrew Boyd, only displays the countdown until Earth’s carbon budget is used up (set at <1.5˚C), their website has both the time (in red) as well as the current percentage of the world energy that comes from renewable resources (in green). This historical clock gives people the urgency to begin making a change in their own lives to contribute to the fight against global warming.
The official climate clock project, a web page hosted by Human Impact Lab from Concordia University, which gets updated annually, launched in 2015. In 2019, Berlin placed a digital version of this website onto their famous Gasometer; and in 2020, Gan Golan and Andrew Boyd erected one in Manhattan. Golan initially thought of the idea shortly after the birth of his daughter and later asked Boyd to join him in this project. They had previously made a handheld climate clock for Greta Thunberg, a well known environmental youth activist, and were also largely influenced by the Doomsday Clock by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the National Debt Clock by Seymour Durst.
In order to achieve the Paris Climate Accord’s goal of keeping the Earth’s average temperature under 1.5˚C increase, climate experts have determined that Earth’s carbon budget is no more than 420 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2. Earth has already warmed by 1˚C since preindustrial times and if we pass this 1.5˚C budget, there will be worse heatwaves, drought, flooding, and more. While this may seem like a massive amount of CO2, scientists say that at the end of 2017, 42 Gt of CO2 was emitted and the emissions are likely to increase yearly. To stay under 2.0˚C, no more than 1170 Gt of CO2 may be produced. Based on the global emission data from 2017, we have about 26 years until we increase Earth’s average temperature to 2.0˚C; however, the rate of cumulative emissions produced annually is not linear, but actually increasing at an alarming rate. From 2018 to 2019, the amount of carbon produced in one year increased by 2.5 ± 0.1 parts per million (ppm). This growth is likely to continue exponentially, giving us less time than we think to act against global warming. With this growth in consideration, scientists set the current deadline for January 1st, 2028. While some websites say that we have more than 7 years to reach zero carbon emissions, the best way to fix our environment is to not procrastinate, but to act now.
The clock in Manhattan follows the one in Berlin, which is based on calculations from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC). The Carbon Budget is the linear relationship between cumulative carbon emissions and the rising average global temperature. However, if all 420 Gt (the Carbon Budget for <1.5˚C) of CO2 are used up, the Earth’s total temperature increase will not necessarily reach 1.5˚C immediately because a time lag exists between the amount of emissions in the atmosphere and their impact on the temperature. The MCC calculations for the rate to an irreversible climate is based on calculated emissions from 2017. Currently, emissions are still on the rise and if this trend continues, we may have less time to act than what is displayed on the Climate Clock. Additionally, a linear rate of increase of the global temperature is unlikely. Scientists have identified multiple “climate tipping points,” which might not only speed up global warming but also result in additional irreversible problems for Earth’s environment.
After the reveal of this new countdown clock, people have become understandably frightened of the time constraint we have to reach zero carbon emissions- the amount of time was previously an unknown “soon, but not yet.” Now, we know that we actually need to act before it’s too late. On Golan and Boyd’s climate clock website, they offer resources on how to make your own DIY clock, volunteer to grow their project, start a campaign in your city to install a climate clock, and use your own clock as a teaching tool in classrooms. As I glance at the clock now, we only have 7 years, 48 days, 7 hours, 31 minutes, and 0 seconds, with only 27.874512% of energy coming from renewable resources, and I cannot help but wonder- will we reach zero emissions by 2028? Or will we waste 420 Gt of carbon emissions? Only we can tell.
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